– Declassified files of the United States of America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) predicted correctly that third republic president Shehu Shagari would be overthrown by General Buhari
– According to the files, Shagari’s ouster would follow his re-election which would be seen by Nigerians as a betrayal because of the harsh economic conditions prevalent at the time
– The files said the discontent with Shagari’s economic policies and his re-election would create the stage for a coup that would cut short Nigeria’s budding democracy
The CIA predicted that the military would overthrow President Shehu Shagari in 1983.
The latest revelation from the declassified CIA secret files is that the United States of America’s intelligence community was well aware of the imminent overthrow of the democratic government of Shehu Shagari by the military in 1983.
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CIA secret files acquired by ZENITHBLOG.com showed that the intelligence community predicted the overthrow of the civilian regime through a coup carried out by then General Muhammadu Buhari.
In the files, the CIA said the overthrow was imminent because of the dire economic situation facing the country.
A page from the document showing the CIA’s explanation of the impending coup.
It noted that the stage for a military coup would be set if Shagari won another term in office. The development, it predicted, would cause an upset in the Nigerian society that would lead to Shagari’s ouster.
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The CIA files predicted: “In our judgement, sudden additional postelection economic retrenchment – particularly should Shagari be re-elected – will generate a sense of betrayal among the public and the defeated politicians and could spark widespread disorder.”
The CIA files showing the conclusion of the agency’s analysis of Shagari’s overthrow.
It concluded: “Sentiment would grow for a coup, particularly among economically disadvantaged enlisted men and lower ranking officers, who are already disillusioned with corruption and economic drift.”
In a related vein, CIA files earlier analysed by ZENITHBLOG.com revealed that the intelligence community was also aware of and indeed predicted that after General Buhari toppled the democratic government of Shehu Shagari, he would also be overthrown by General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida in 1985.
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