– Nigeria is facing a potential political crisis
– This is fueled by President Muhammadu Buhari’s worsening health
– The polity is already heated as politicians gear up for the 2019 general elections
A report by Wall Street Journal indicates that Nigeria is facing a potential political crisis fueled by President Muhammadu Buhari’s worsening health.
Unofficially, Nigeria’s presidency is supposed to alternate between the Muslim-majority north and the Christian south to keep both populations appeased, analysts and political commentators say.
The south is home to the country’s oil and its economic capital, Lagos, while the north has historically felt it needs to be the seat of government to maintain balance of power.
“During the period of military rule, the north monopolized power,” said Jideofor Adibe, an associate professor of political science at Nasarawa state university. “That created a lot of animosity in the south.”
Still, Mr Adibe added that the north feels as though “they are left with nothing” if the south has the presidency. “You get this competitive anger,” he said.
READ ALSO: Nigerian man visits President Buhari in London with letter (photos)
President Muhammadu Buhari has spent 70 days and counting in London this year, undergoing unspecified medical treatment. When he first left in January for what was billed as a 10-day vacation, Nigeria was in the throes of its worst recession in three decades amid a dollar shortage that was driving away investment and a revived insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.
Before he left on May 7 for his second visit to the British capital this year, Buhari missed several cabinet meetings and looked very ill in public.
Ahead of each departure, Buhari signed over power to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. Osinbajo has ushered in a new foreign-exchange policy designed to infuse dollar liquidity into the market and sealed a cease-fire with militants in the Niger Delta.
The country’s foreign-currency crisis has also abated, with the official airport-kiosk rate of 380 naira to the U.S. dollar matching the black-market rate.
“The acting president is doing an excellent job,” said Olayemi Haruna, a grocer in the capital Abuja.
With no indication of Buhari’s condition or when he may return, speculation is rife that Nigeria might see a repeat of the 2010
“Will he survive this year? I doubt it,” said Boniface Chizea, chief executive at BIC Consultancy Services in Lagos. “You look at him, you know he’s terminally ill.”
Under Nigeria’s constitution, if Buhari dies or steps down, Osinbajo will assume office. Although, there are fears his elevation could spur political infighting.
“There are those who are prepared to work hard to make [Buhari] stay on as president, even if he is a vegetable,” BIC’s Mr Chizea said.
Other analysts and academics say that, ideally, Osinbajo should finish out Buhari’s term and then step down, but there is no law preventing him from running again in 2019. The result could be an extended period of infighting, and potentially, interference by the military.
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“In a fragile nation like ours, the law has to operate in a political context,” Dr Adibe said. “Everything now is in a state of suspense.”
“The north doesn’t want what happened with Jonathan to happen again,” said Cyril Uchenna Gwam, chief executive of Emerson Consulting Nigeria. “In Nigeria, we hide health issues—it’s part of our custom. But if you are a government official, you must be able to tell us your state of health.”
After his departure, the Nigerian Senate read a letter from Buhari who explicitly said he had no definite date for his return as his doctors would be the ones to determine his return date.
Watch the video report of ZENITHBLOG.com TV where former aviation minister, Femi Fani-Kayode talked about his meeting with President Buhari.
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